At the retail level, November brings a brief shift in focus, away from beef to turkey and ham, for Thanksgiving meals. Current wholesale prices for each of these protein items are trading at steep discounts compared to the prior two years. Turkeys are the classic “loss leader” item in grocery stores during November, as retailers practically give them away to lure a volume of shoppers to spend on the high-margin center-of-the-store goods.

Beef is in the opposing position as the premier protein in the meatcase, currently garnering seasonal, record-high cutout values with last week’s comprehensive price at $299.84 per hundredweight (cwt.). High prices tend to be the cure for high prices, but beef demand is historically strong.

Some end meats, such as the inside round, showed declines last week, but context reveals a sharp increase preceding this in mid-October. The Certified Angus Beef^® (CAB) inside round price last week was record-high and 26% higher than a year ago. An adjustment lower is reasonable considering these factors. Fifty percent lean trim for grinds are, however, $0.10 per pound (lb.), or 13%, cheaper than a year ago as that item seeks winter low price points. This is a noted detriment to total cutout values for steers and heifers.

Middle meats tend to pull fourth-quarter cutout values higher, and the latest trends prove this is currently the case. Ribs and tenderloins are the most popular middle meats for the season, and both have posted stronger price trends during the past two weeks. CAB ribeyes — at $13.50 per lb. wholesale — are 8.5% higher than at the start of September. Choice ribeyes are now priced just shy of early September values, but we know a volume of buying is done at that time for deep-chill programs to be brought out as fresh holiday offerings.

Availability of CAB tenderloins looks to be short since wholesale prices have inflated $3 per lb. in four weeks to a recent $18.25 per lb. Total supplies of Choice and higher ribs and tenderloins are an issue presently, since weekly fed-cattle slaughter is much lower than a year ago as packers cut production hours. The recent downturn in total Choice grading percentage has lower-one-third Choice carcass counts under pressure, further fueling the Choice-Select spread.

This has driven the Choice-Select cutout spread to $31.69 per cwt. in this Tuesday’s daily report. Last week’s CAB-Choice cutout spread was a bit narrower than the prior week’s at $18.24 per cwt., but may have widened in the four days yet to be reported.

Combined Choice and Prime quality grades and CAB carcass acceptance percentages tend to bottom in October/November. This, along with holiday middle meat demand, makes this period an ideal time to market marbling-rich, heavily Angus-influenced cattle on a grid. Using today’s price, CAB carcasses calculate to a $14.50-per-cwt. premium to cattle feeders on some grids. That’s $130.50 per head premium to the cash market and a $9.20-per-cwt. premium on a live basis.

Editor’s note: This article is reprinted from the Nov. 8, 2023,  CAB Insider  newsletter. Paul Dykstra is director of supply management and analysis for Certified Angus Beef.