Accuracy and Associated Possible Change
The following table lists the possible change values associated with each EPD trait at the various accuracy levels. This table provides an understanding of the amount of information behind an EPD prediction and the expected amount of change.
Accuracy is the reliability that can be placed on the EPD. An accuracy of close to 1.0 indicates higher reliability. Accuracy is impacted by individual’s phenotypes and genotype and the number of progeny or ancestral records included in the analysis.
Possible change is expressed as "+" or "-" pounds of EPD and can be described as a measure of expected change or potential deviation between the EPD and the "true" progeny difference. This confidence range depends on the standard error of prediction for an EPD. For a given accuracy, about two-thirds of the time an animal should have a "true" progeny difference within the range of the EPD plus or minus the possible change value.
Example: A sire with an accuracy of .60 for a marbling EPD of +0.50 is expected to have his "true" progeny value falling within ±.12 marbling score EPD (ranging between +0.38 and +0.62) about two-thirds of the time.
With the conservative approach taken with respect to heritabilities in the Angus evaluation, actual EPD changes of animals within the population are much less than statistics would indicate.
| Production | Management | Maternal | Carcass | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | CED | BW | WW | YW | RADG | DMI | YH | SC | Doc | Claw | Angle | PAP | HS | HP | CEM | Milk | MW | MH | CW | Marb | RE | Fat |
| .05 | 9.7 | 2.55 | 14.9 | 24.3 | .065 | .763 | .47 | .76 | 16.7 | .14 | .12 | 2.15 | .26 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 38 | .52 | 20 | .29 | .30 | .041 |
| .10 | 9.2 | 2.42 | 14.1 | 23.0 | .061 | .723 | .44 | .72 | 15.8 | .13 | .12 | 2.04 | .25 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 36 | .49 | 19 | .28 | .28 | .039 |
| .15 | 8.7 | 2.28 | 13.3 | 21.7 | .058 | .682 | .42 | .68 | 14.9 | .12 | .11 | 1.93 | .23 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 34 | .46 | 18 | .26 | .27 | .037 |
| .20 | 8.2 | 2.15 | 12.6 | 20.5 | .054 | .642 | .39 | .64 | 14.0 | .11 | .11 | 1.81 | .22 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 32 | .43 | 17 | .25 | .25 | .034 |
| .25 | 7.7 | 2.02 | 11.8 | 19.2 | .051 | .602 | .37 | .60 | 13.2 | .11 | .10 | 1.70 | .21 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 30 | .41 | 16 | .23 | .23 | .032 |
| .30 | 7.2 | 1.88 | 11.0 | 17.9 | .048 | .562 | .34 | .56 | 12.3 | .10 | .09 | 1.59 | .19 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 28 | .38 | 15 | .22 | .22 | .030 |
| .35 | 6.7 | 1.75 | 10.2 | 16.6 | .044 | .522 | .32 | .52 | 11.4 | .09 | .09 | 1.47 | .18 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 26 | .35 | 14 | .20 | .20 | .028 |
| .40 | 6.2 | 1.61 | 9.4 | 15.4 | .041 | .482 | .29 | .48 | 10.5 | .09 | .08 | 1.36 | .16 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 24 | .33 | 13 | .18 | .19 | .026 |
| .45 | 5.6 | 1.48 | 8.6 | 14.1 | .037 | .442 | .27 | .44 | 9.7 | .08 | .07 | 1.25 | .15 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 22 | .30 | 12 | .17 | .17 | .024 |
| .50 | 5.1 | 1.34 | 7.9 | 12.8 | .034 | .401 | .25 | .40 | 8.8 | .07 | .07 | 1.13 | .14 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 20 | .27 | 11 | .15 | .16 | .022 |
| .55 | 4.6 | 1.21 | 7.1 | 11.5 | .031 | .361 | .22 | .36 | 7.9 | .06 | .06 | 1.02 | .12 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 18 | .24 | 10 | .14 | .14 | .019 |
| .60 | 4.1 | 1.08 | 6.3 | 10.2 | .027 | .321 | .20 | .32 | 7.0 | .06 | .05 | 0.91 | .11 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 16 | .22 | 9 | .12 | .12 | .017 |
| .65 | 3.6 | .94 | 5.5 | 9.0 | .024 | .281 | .17 | .28 | 6.1 | .05 | .05 | 0.79 | .10 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 14 | .19 | 7 | .11 | .11 | .015 |
| .70 | 3.1 | .81 | 4.7 | 7.7 | .020 | .241 | .15 | .24 | 5.3 | .04 | .04 | 0.68 | .08 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 12 | .16 | 6 | .09 | .09 | .013 |
| .75 | 2.6 | .67 | 3.9 | 6.4 | .017 | .201 | .12 | .20 | 4.4 | .04 | .03 | 0.57 | .07 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 10 | .14 | 5 | .08 | .08 | .011 |
| .80 | 2.1 | .54 | 3.1 | 5.1 | .014 | .161 | .10 | .16 | 3.5 | .03 | .03 | 0.45 | .05 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 8 | .11 | 4 | .06 | .06 | .009 |
| .85 | 1.5 | .40 | 2.4 | 3.8 | .010 | .120 | .07 | .12 | 2.6 | .02 | .02 | 0.34 | .04 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 6 | .08 | 3 | .05 | .05 | .006 |
| .90 | 1.0 | .27 | 1.6 | 2.6 | .007 | .080 | .05 | .08 | 1.8 | .01 | .01 | 0.23 | .03 | .8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | .05 | 2 | .03 | .03 | .004 |
| .95 | .5 | .13 | .8 | 1.3 | .003 | .040 | .02 | .04 | .9 | .01 | .01 | 0.11 | .01 | .4 | .5 | .5 | 2 | .03 | 1 | .02 | .02 | .002 |
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