Cattle prices have been increasing cyclically since the last cyclical price low in 2020. Prices have been supported by five years of drought-forced declining beef cow numbers. 2024 will likely be the sixth year of declining beef cow numbers.

Even though beef cow numbers have declined, the beef industry continues to be very adaptive and resilient at producing beef.

On a long-term basis, beef cow numbers have generally declined since 1975 with each cyclical high lower than the previous cyclical high. However, U.S. beef production has been on a long-term uptrend in spite of a decline in cow numbers.

The long-term increase in beef production resulted from an increase in fed cattle live and carcass weights. Carcass weights have trended higher for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing an average of 4 pounds per year. Steer carcass weights peaked in 2022 at 910 pounds (lb.), but declined slightly to 908 lb. in 2023.

U.S. beef production reached an all-time record high of 28.29 billion lb. in 2022, buoyed by drought-forced beef cow liquidation. 2023 beef production declined to 27.03 billion lb. with fewer cattle available.

Each month, USDA predicts expected annual beef production for 2024 and 2025 in the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE) report. It is available at: www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.

Fed steer and heifer carcass weights decreased seasonally the first five weeks of 2024, the result of severe winter weather in December and January. USDA’s January WASDE estimate for 2024 beef production was 26.11 billion lb., down 3.2% from 2023. However, USDA has increased the beef production estimate each month since, due to increasing fed cattle carcass weights and more heifers on feed than earlier expected. The November WASDE beef production estimate was increased to 27.09 billion lb., which is slightly higher than last year.