Breeding and raising cattle is big business with risk and seasons of opportunity, and a rebuilding of the industry’s cowherd will be one of those times producers have the chance to make gains from financial and genetic perspectives. 

A series of educational sessions at the 2024 Angus Convention in November focused on the theme of herd rebuilding. Nevil Speer, an industry consultant, said the U.S. beef cow herd is expected to decline to around 27.8-28 million head by early 2025, as producers have been slow to move toward rebuilding the herd after the recent drought period. 

“We are not building a cowherd today,” Speer said. “If we do get into that point in which we’ve just started rebuilding like crazy and the market swings back the other way, guess who gets left behind? It’s the people that sell commodity cattle.” 

Speer said he sees market trends continuing to shift toward cattle and beef quality, transparency and an appetite for data, and efficiency in production.  

“That's really what’s driving the business,” he said. “So in the next wave of whether it’s herd rebuilding or business transition, that’s what becomes important.” 

He added that he’s more interested in the business decisions producers are making to stay profitable or increase their profitability than he is in short-term market conditions. Two commercial producers shared their stories with attendees and answered questions about how they made genetic improvements and increased their herds’ profitability. 

Ryan Noble of Noble Ranch, Yuma, Colorado, was one of those and is well-known for his heifer development program. Unfortunately, his family had to rebuild their cow herd in 2019 to 2020 more recently than most due to drought. 

“God had a plan for us, and we sold every cow for every dollar we asked for them,” Noble said. “It was an opportunity for us. We went out seeking high-quality heifer calves. We knew what we wanted to raise.” 

He said their ranch shifted to being a service provider, developing heifers and building back their herd, aiming for what he calls “an apology-free cow herd.” 

Noble’s ideal set of females would be docile; healthy with good feet and eyes; and fertile, calving once a year with a good udder. 

“She’s got the appropriate amount of growth for your environment,” he said. “She is going to go garner premiums through the next two stages. You put her on feed, she’s going to get it done. You hang her on the rail, she’s going to get it done. That’s an apology-free cow, and she’s going to do it with a minimal amount of inputs and a minimal amount of labor.” 

In pursuit of this stockman’s dream of a cow herd, Noble has come to place great value on known genetics and strategic nutrition investment. He uses genetic testing tools and makes heifers prove they have what it takes to go work for him in his sometimes-unforgiving environment.

“I figure by the time we end up with a bred heifer, she’s probably lived through five or six sorts on our range,” he said. “If she can make it through all that and become pregnant, that’s when we are ready to invest more money.” 

Investing in the right females pays dividends, Noble says, because he expects them to have longevity enough “until you’re so old that everybody knows your number.” 

Jimmy Taylor of Taylor Ranch, Cheyenne, Oklahoma, has his own ideal cowherd and he has dove into the data to help it become closer and closer to reality. The Taylor Ranch began transitioning to its current model of backgrounding their own calves on the ranch, retaining ownership through the feedyard and selling them on the grid in 2005. 

“I wanted something where I could get a bonus or premium on every calf,” Taylor said. “So I looked around and decided that the best route to do that would be raising carcass cattle while raising good replacement heifers.” 

He said his first set of steers were 13% prime in 2012. Today their range is typically between 50 to 75% prime. 

Taylor’s carcass data and 10-plus years of genetic data on his females shows his system is working.  

“What really got us into high gear was when what I called enhanced GeneMax^® Advantage™ happened in 2016, where they had 10 traits and [percentile rankings for each animal] in those traits,” Taylor said. “Now I can target traits and I can make rapid improvement doing that.” 

Taylor said individualized data with trait-by-trait analysis has helped him use a more diverse pool of sires and “match specific females up to my bulls’ strong points and weak points.” 

GeneMax Advantage now has 19 traits, and the American Angus Association^® continues to crank out expected progeny differences (EPDs) as tools for genetic selection with registered bulls.  

Both Taylor and Noble said it is worthwhile work to get a handle on their own herd’s data and identify clear targets. 

“What gets us from point A to point B are these tools,” Noble said. 

Seedstock and commercial producers are not the only ones paying attention to genetics. Industry Insights powered by Angus Media and CattleFax summarizes survey data from cattle feeders across the United States, representing around 3.3 million head of feeding capacity. 

“Sixty percent of the feedlot respondents said that genetics play a bigger role in their purchase decision today (than they did five years ago), and that’s going to continue to grow,” said Esther Tarpoff, the Association’s director of performance programs. 

Tarpoff says tools like GeneMax Advantage can help commercial producers find the females in their herd that are going to be the most profitable, and there are programs like AngusLink^SM to assist with marketing their calves to build more margin into their herd.  

These tools also help seedstock and commercial producers align their genetic selection goals and create a common language for marketing Angus genetics throughout the beef production system. 

She says ultimately the focus on genetic merit and quality at each of these levels continues driving value through the supply chain.