The USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the much-anticipated annual CATTLE inventory report Jan. 31, 2025. It is available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h.

Given the continuing drought in important cattle producing regions and the historically low number of beef replacement heifers on hand to start the year, the big question wasn’t if, but how much the beef cow herd declined.

The report was especially important because NASS did not release the usual July CATTLE inventory report in 2024 due to budgetary constraints.

U.S. beef cow numbers Jan. 1, 2025, at 27.86 million head were down 149,500 head or 0.5% from the 28.01 million head Jan. 1, 2024. The 2023, 2024 and 2025 numbers were all below the 28.96 million beef cows at the last cyclical low in 2014, which saw the previous record-high cattle prices.

Some cattle market observers expected the beef cow herd to be down about 1%. In the 2025 report, NASS did revise the Jan. 1, 2024, beef cow numbers down from the earlier estimate of 28.22 million head, so that would be closer to a 1% decline.

Fig. 1: Change in Beef Cows 2024 to 2025 (1,000 Head)

Some cattle market observers expected the beef cow herd to be down about 1%. In the 2025 report, NASS did revise the Jan. 1, 2024, beef cow numbers down from the earlier estimate of 28.22 million head, so that would be closer to a 1% decline.

Last year marked the sixth straight year of U.S. beef cow herd cyclical liquidation. Numbers peaked on Jan. 1, 2019, at 31.64 million head, so the six-year decline was about 3.78 million head or 12%.

Drought conditions in important beef cow-producing regions began in 2020 and expanded and intensified in 2021 with more than 50% of the beef cow herd in areas with at least some drought. That contributed to continued beef cow liquidation. 

Cattle prices started increasing cyclically in 2021 and continued in 2022 due to the lower cattle numbers and good domestic and export beef demand. 

But drought even worsened in 2022 with 76% of the cow herd in drought by late summer, which contributed to very high beef cow slaughter. Drought conditions in 2023 improved in some important cattle producing regions, with only 35% of beef cows in drought by year end. Cattle prices also reached record high levels.

Drought conditions continued to improve, and by June 2024 only 8% of cows were in drought. However, drought conditions again intensified, and by late fall 60% of cattle were back in drought. Moisture conditions have improved in the last few months, especially in the southern Plains with about 38% of beef cows remaining in drought areas.

Herd numbers

The top 10 beef cow states in order of importance are Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Dakota, Kentucky and Florida, which account for 57% of the U.S. beef cow herd. 

Of those states, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Montana, North Dakota and Florida saw increases in beef cow numbers during 2024, indicating interest in beef herd restocking.

The 2024 U.S. beef replacement heifer inventory at 4.67 million head declined 45,900 head (1%). That was the lowest number for many years. The number of bred beef heifers expected to calve in 2025 was 2.92 million, down 1.7% from last year.

The historical low number of replacement heifers will limit beef cow herd rebuilding this year. Of course, weather remains the wild card to when restocking in earnest can occur. 

In spite of the beef cow herd declining, 2024 beef production was the same as 2023 due to an increase in fed steer and heifer carcass weights, more heifers on feed due to U.S. drought conditions in major cow-calf regions, and the use of beef genetics in the dairy sector.

Steer and heifer carcass weights averaged 20-25 pounds heavier than 2023, which was the equivalent of slaughtering a million more fed cattle. That offset the 926,300-head decline in U.S. beef cow numbers that occurred during 2023, which will be an important factor to consider when cyclical beef cow herd expansion occurs.

The declining beef cow herd will mean fewer cattle marketed and possibly declining beef production in 2025. That will be supportive to cattle prices.

Current cattle prices are at record-high levels and are expected to continue. However, price volatility and risk will likely continue. Drought conditions linger, the potential size of the 2025 corn crop is unknown, domestic and export beef demand face headwinds, and geopolitical and trade issues remain uncertain.